Been tracking outcomes for sides, 1.5 runlines and totals
since May 23 with lines that were posted at my sportsbook. My main interest was in the runlines, as I had thought I noticed the trend last baseball season, so once hockey wound down I’ve been tracking them plus the other game outcomes as well.
Here are the results thru July 2:
[with a day or two missing results (sorry) on account of being away; also note some games were discarded from “faves / dogs” tally if lines had both teams at the very same price]
Favourites - 271
Underdogs - 204
Runline (-1.5) favourites - 196
Runline (+1.5) underdogs - 284
Overs - 212
Unders - 204
Analysis
Obviously no value in ever blindly betting exclusively Overs, or just taking the Unders, as they are pretty well 50 -50.
Although faves are coming in at a 57% rate, the huge chalk precludes blindly going with favourites. [Gambling 101 etc.]
Okay, okay, we all know that, but what about the runline (+1.5) underdogs? The above numbers show a 59% success rate. That’s better than taking the faves all the time, but you have to be careful, as sometimes there is hefty chalk here too (e.g. Montreal was +1.5 / -190 on Wednesday). On the other hand, there can be value (e.g. Milwaukee was +1.5 / -135 on Wednesday).
I have found some success taking the runline (+1.5) underdogs in two-team parlays, often with a so-called “sure” fave. For example, I used Toronto and Boston in a number of parlays on Wednesday with various runline (+1.5) underdogs. Obviously there was no value in betting the Jays (-300) or Red Sox (-400) as individual sides on Wednesday. But with runline (+1.5) underdogs in two-team parlays, the payoff for taking a huge fave as your “anchor” increases to a more acceptable risk, and given the above success rate of 59%, if you can consistently win an average of 6 out of 10 two-teamers, that’s modestly profitable over the season.
But the key is having the correct anchor. Another way is to use two of the runline (+1.5) underdogs together in your parlay. That is hugely profitable in a week like this one where the runline (+1.5) underdogs have beaten the runline (-1.5) favourites by the tune of 30 to 11 the past three days ...
And for the more adventurous, use runline underdogs with some of your over / under bets to boost their payouts.
The corollary of all of this is to largely avoid taking runline (-1.5) favourites. Their + prices can sometimes be tempting -- and other times, like Wednesday’s Boston hefty -1.5 / -230 are absolutely to be avoided like the plague -- in the long run they will let you down much much more often than not.
Believe me, I know, I lost a lot of money on them when I was a newbie.
Best,
Three Units
since May 23 with lines that were posted at my sportsbook. My main interest was in the runlines, as I had thought I noticed the trend last baseball season, so once hockey wound down I’ve been tracking them plus the other game outcomes as well.
Here are the results thru July 2:
[with a day or two missing results (sorry) on account of being away; also note some games were discarded from “faves / dogs” tally if lines had both teams at the very same price]
Favourites - 271
Underdogs - 204
Runline (-1.5) favourites - 196
Runline (+1.5) underdogs - 284
Overs - 212
Unders - 204
Analysis
Obviously no value in ever blindly betting exclusively Overs, or just taking the Unders, as they are pretty well 50 -50.
Although faves are coming in at a 57% rate, the huge chalk precludes blindly going with favourites. [Gambling 101 etc.]
Okay, okay, we all know that, but what about the runline (+1.5) underdogs? The above numbers show a 59% success rate. That’s better than taking the faves all the time, but you have to be careful, as sometimes there is hefty chalk here too (e.g. Montreal was +1.5 / -190 on Wednesday). On the other hand, there can be value (e.g. Milwaukee was +1.5 / -135 on Wednesday).
I have found some success taking the runline (+1.5) underdogs in two-team parlays, often with a so-called “sure” fave. For example, I used Toronto and Boston in a number of parlays on Wednesday with various runline (+1.5) underdogs. Obviously there was no value in betting the Jays (-300) or Red Sox (-400) as individual sides on Wednesday. But with runline (+1.5) underdogs in two-team parlays, the payoff for taking a huge fave as your “anchor” increases to a more acceptable risk, and given the above success rate of 59%, if you can consistently win an average of 6 out of 10 two-teamers, that’s modestly profitable over the season.
But the key is having the correct anchor. Another way is to use two of the runline (+1.5) underdogs together in your parlay. That is hugely profitable in a week like this one where the runline (+1.5) underdogs have beaten the runline (-1.5) favourites by the tune of 30 to 11 the past three days ...
And for the more adventurous, use runline underdogs with some of your over / under bets to boost their payouts.
The corollary of all of this is to largely avoid taking runline (-1.5) favourites. Their + prices can sometimes be tempting -- and other times, like Wednesday’s Boston hefty -1.5 / -230 are absolutely to be avoided like the plague -- in the long run they will let you down much much more often than not.
Believe me, I know, I lost a lot of money on them when I was a newbie.
Best,
Three Units
